I read the enclosed article in one of my trade newspapers. I thought you may find it quite interesting as it relates to the upcoming U.S presidential election. The objective is not to share my political views rather offer you CIBC’s opinion of the possible outcome.
Via The Investment Executive:
Another term for Obama would benefit Canada’s economy: CIBC
By James Langton | September 07, 2012 16:45
With the U.S. presidential election now in full swing, CIBC World Markets Inc. weighs the candidates’ platforms and concludes that a second term for Barack Obama would likely be better for Canada’s economy.
In a new report, CIBC notes that there’s almost as much at stake for Canadians, as there is for Americans, in a U.S. election, given the close linkage between the two countries. And so, it looks at how Canada should vote, if it had a say.
Ultimately, it concludes that the decision largely comes down to whose monetary and fiscal policies will be better at accelerating overall economic growth. And, on that criteria, it favours Obama.
It notes that Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, opposes further monetary stimulus, whereas Obama is likely to be more dovish.
On the fiscal side, the report says, “the debate will largely be about how quickly restraint should be brought on”, rather than any sort of further stimulus; and that favours Obama too, it suggests.
“Romney will be easier on the tax side, but mostly at upper incomes where more of the benefits are saved rather than spent. His plan to lower marginal rates will not entail net stimulus other than through second-order efficiency effects, because it will be paid for by lower deductions,” it notes. And, it suggests a Romney administration “will push for deeper, [spending] restraint.”
“Obama is much more likely to press to spread out the spending restraint over time, giving the economy a bit more breathing room in the short term,” it says.
“Add it all up, and both monetary and fiscal policy could be more stimulative under Obama, a benefit to Canada’s 2013 outlook,” it concludes.